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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting $1.2 trillion in purchase mortgage originations during 2018, a 7.3 percent increase from 2017. However, the trade group is also predicting a 28.3 percent decline in refinance originations from 2017, to approximately $430 billion. As a result of the combined total, the MBA is expecting an overall decrease in mortgage originations to $1.60 trillion in 2018 from $1.69 trillion in 2017.
Looking further ahead to 2019, MBA predicted total originations will rebound to $1.64 trillion, with purchase originations of $1.24 trillion and refinance originations of $395 billion. And also looking backward, the MBA upwardly revised its estimate of originations for 2016 to $2.05 trillion from $1.89 trillion, due to the most recent data reported in the 2016 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data release.
“We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase at a faster clip in 2018, nearly double the rate that they increased in 2017,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Industry Technology. “The housing market has been hamstrung by insufficient supply, with inventories of homes remarkably low given the home price growth we have experienced. The job market remains strong, demographic trends are quite favorable, mortgage credit is becoming more available to qualified borrowers, and home prices should continue to rise. All the pieces are in place for stronger growth in 2018 and beyond.”
